Observed and projected trends in paediatric health resources and services in China between 2003 and 2030: a time-series study

OBJECTIVES The two-child policy took effect in China on 1 January 2016, thus officially ending the one-child policy. The resultant growth in the population will create a considerable demand for public services such as paediatric healthcare, even while there are limited paediatric resources. We estimated the relationship between paediatric health resources and services and child mortality to determine the degree of the deficiency of such resources in China. Projecting the quantity of paediatric health resource allocation and service supply through 2030 will help provide data reference for future policy decision making. DESIGN Time-series study. SETTING The People's Republic of China. PARTICIPANTS Paediatric patients whose data were recorded between 2003 and 2012 from the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES Child mortality and paediatric health resources and services data were entered into a cubic polynomial regression model to project paediatric health resources and services to 2030. RESULTS Child mortality decreased throughout the past decade. Furthermore, the number of paediatric beds, paediatricians and nurses increased between 2003 and 2012, although the proportions increased rather slowly. Both the number and proportion of paediatric outpatients and inpatients increased rapidly. The observed and model-predicted values matched well (adjusted R2=93.8% for paediatric beds; adjusted R2=96.6% for paediatric outpatient visits). Overall, the projection indicated that paediatric beds, paediatricians and nurses will reach 460 148, 233 884 and 184 059 by 2030, respectively. Regarding paediatric services, the number of paediatric outpatient visits and inpatients is expected to reach upwards of 449.95 million and 21.83 million by 2030, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Despite implementation of the two-child policy, resource allocation in paediatrics has many deficiencies. Proper measures should be taken to actively respond to the demand for paediatric health services.